WHO USED TO SIT HERE?
Four-time Walkley Award winning political commentator and Churchill Fellow, has returned to the fray over concern that the integrity of news dissemination is continually being threatened by a partisan media.
Treasurer Morrison’s highly aspirational forecast for a reclaimed surplus by 2021-22 is predicated on a consistent 5 per cent GDP growth rate over multiple years. Well, you cannot get more aspirational than that, considering he is forecasting double the average GDP growth rate of OECD nations.
And Morrison’s aspiration seems more like masturbation when you consider China has recently registered its lowest growth rate in a quarter century.
The GDP Growth Rate in Australia averaged 0.87 per cent between 1959 and 2015, reaching a record high of 4.40 per cent in the first quarter of 1976 followed by an all time low of -2 per cent in the second quarter of a 1976 economic roller coaster that followed the dismissal of a disastrous Whitlam.
Multiple years of a forecast 5 per cent rate is sheer fantasy.
Would the Opposition point to this fantasy forecasting? Of course not, it may need to quote the same rubbery figures itself in future.
Shadow treasurer Bowen is highly excited only over Morrison stealing his tobacco policy with an over estimated dollar return by Bowen of double Treasury’s estimate.
If either side believes anyone is going to pay $60 or $70 bucks for a packet of fags they are dreaming. So tax receipts figures are equally rubbery.
This budget was designed to get Turnbull to an election without the electorate tearing him to shreds but he is destined to lose all but five or six seats of Abbott’s record landslide victory anyway.
Five or six is a manageable majority that will allow him his Left mandate of a Republic and a form of carbon tax, something he hasn’t dared to mention since the coup and something he will get the Greens’ support for without a DD.
A Republic is starting to look an attractive option given recent events where a Leader can sweep his Party to a record election win only to be rolled mid-term by a perennial PM aspirant with Abbott’s hard won 90 seats to play with.
And Trump reckons the GOP is rigged!
So how safe is Turnbull now that the Coalition is polling lower than the ALP on 2PP... the very reason Turnbull gave for rolling Abbott?
Well, he’s very safe for now, but mid-term in the next Parliament may be a different story, after all we seem determined to change Prime Ministers every year on average without the electorate getting a say in it.
So those on the conservative side who hate the ground Turnbull walks on (and there are plenty of them) have something to look forward to.