SHORTEN'S PLAN TO HIJACK THE LODGE
Four-time Walkley Award winning political commentator and Churchill Fellow, has returned to the fray over concern that the integrity of news dissemination is continually being threatened by a partisan media.
The ABC and Fairfax, in a relentless barrage of misinformation, outright lies and an incandescent hatred of Tony Abbott, are throwing everything bar the kitchen sink at wresting the pivotal seat of Canning from the Coalition. They believe if Canning goes, so too does Abbott, but does Shorten really want him gone as much as media’s Left does?
Never has there been such a concerted attempt by media’s Left to unseat a Prime Minister whose Party was recently elected with a record majority. Even the catastrophic Whitlam, Rudd and Gillard were always under Fairfax and the ABC’s witness protection program.
Surely no-one would put Abbott in the class of those three, so what to do when such an unrelenting and ferociously vindictive attack occurs from the Left media? Well, there are only two choices: Confront it with an even greater ferocity, defund the ABC and discredit the dying Fairfax, kill it off and then bury it. But that’s an almost impossible task.
And unfortunately Abbott is reluctant to return fire on anything so he will be further personally degraded by these fetid and foul means until the next election where the Coalition as a whole will suffer a massive loss of seats.
Once the Left media makes up its mind there is usually no escape and 80 percent of the media is of the Left persuasion, it always has been, but never have I seen such a demonstrable hatred of a Prime Minister.
The other option is to remove the target.
But it’s pointless removing Abbott without being able to govern effectively with his replacement, who really ought to be Morrison (I took 12/1 about him leading the Coalition to the next election a year ago).
But to change to Morrison and leave him struggling with the same set of circumstances that’s killing Abbott would be crazy! There is now a small window of opportunity to largely rid the Senate of the Green and Independent rabble that Shorten utilises to prevent the Government from governing.
It is democratically inconceivable to everyone, except Fairfax and the ABC, that a Government that swept to power with a record breaking majority is prevented from passing its own remedial legislation.
The Chinese Free Trade Agreement that Shorten is refusing to pass, along with a dozen other significant pieces of legislation that would assist Australia to recover from six years of Labor recklessness, is symptomatic of Shortens clear intentions.
The cruel political facts are these; Abbott is unable to govern, he cannot now survive and it has nothing to do with whether he’s a good bloke or not, it’s just the way it is, and a Morrison Cabinet must not be put in the same invidious position by Shorten who is being cheered on wildly by the ABC and Fairfax.
A certain election win awaits the Coalition if it utilises all the available triggers for a Double Dissolution. Not just one, but all.
The required three months period after the Senate has first rejected legislation has already elapsed. A second rejection of all or even one of those Bills allows the Government to ask the Governor General to call a double dissolution election. But ALL Bills must be presented a second time, just as Whitlam did.
Okay, when the Senate sits again in one week’s time that can be done and, after a trip to Government House, no further Bills can be passed and every seat in both Houses will be vacated for a fresh early election under the Coalition's terms.
Never has there been a better election story for the Coalition to tell the electorate. Voters have proved conclusively sympathetic when the government they elected is prevented from governing.
Voters even re-elected a Whitlam Government (albeit with a reduced majority) because they felt their vote mattered, despite clearly believing the Whitlam mob was hopeless, before eventually kicking them out. It’s an Australian “fair go” thing.
But the Coalition must get the message right.
In a Double Dissolution election the Coalition can throw in the dodgy “marriage equality” plebiscite and an Aboriginal recognition referendum, both of which will fail. A referendum on reforming the Senate must be held separately and at another time.
The China FTA will prove a great story for the Coalition although it cannot be part of the current rejected bundle of Bills. Dyson Heydon will be finalising his report and he will recommend more charges be laid and yet another lot of Shorten’s mates will be joining former ALP President, Michael Williamson and Eddie Obeid, in the slammer... not a good look for the hustings
This move will prove the ugliest of all perfect storms for Shorten and he will have thoroughly deserved it.
Section 57 of the Constitution also requires that, “...such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time.” ... a condition easily met, as the “expiry date” would not fall until September next year... plenty of time.
It will also be harder for smaller parties like the depleted PUPS to win Senate seats in a Double Dissolution election as the Senate proportional voting system requires that the quota for the election of each senator in each Australian State in a normal half-Senate election be 14.28% but in a full Senate election the quota is 7.69%.
But the lower quota may favour Independents, although the electorate will be a little more wary of idiot odd bods winning further Senate seats.
Bit complicated I know, but it works. With the lowered quota in Whitlam’s 1974 double dissolution election, the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) lost all five of its Senate seats.
When the joint sitting was held between the two chambers to pass Whitlam’s stalled Bills the ALP held 95 of the 187 seats, giving them a 3-seat majority. But it’s doubtful that Morrison would need a joint sitting... regardless, the recovery would be well underway and blooming before the 2019 election and Labor would have been confined to at least three terms of hibernation.
There are many more advantages for the incumbent Government in a Double Dissolution election. But the main problem will be when to hold it. Before Christmas is doubtful and people aren’t back from hols until February. Late February would still fit within the time restraints.
Bill Shorten’s plan from day one has been to gain the keys to The Lodge by dastardly means. He, like Gillard, has done a deal with the Greens to reject all remedial legislation in return for further billion dollar Green schemes after he kills Abbott at the next election.
The Greens have had clout well beyond their numbers.
Shorten’s intention is to stop the Abbott Government at all costs from repairing Gillard’s and Rudd’s mess. He will not even allow the budget deficit to be addressed. Why you ask? Well, it’s simple really.
He wants to face next year’s election with Abbott buckling under a greater debt, a greater deficit, higher unemployment, and lower balance of payments due to the mining collapse. Therefore he is using the Greens to reject every piece of legislation that will assist in getting the economy back on track.
Any Treasurer would find it hard if he is not given the books or the combination to the safe.
When Abbott complains, Shorten will say (as he already has), “Well, Julia Gillard dealt effectively with a hostile Senate, why can’t you?” This of course is an outright lie. Each of Gillard’s 600 dodgy pieces of legislation sailed through the Senate in a breeze as she had the numbers due to her official alliance with the Greens’ Bob Brown.
There is no comparison, but the wily Shorten knows the Abbott-hating bogans who will decide the next election will swallow it... and so far Shorten is on track.
Abbott is currently condemned to going through a meaningless phase of pretending everything is under control and improving when it most certainly is not. He has finally realised he cannot fix the mess and is lurching from one innocuous unfunded monetary policy to another.
A Double Dissolution is suddenly looking to be the only certain way for the Coalition to win a second term. Unfortunately it will not be possible with Tony Abbott at the helm, but is Abbott a big enough man to realise this? I doubt it, thus the Cabinet leaks and renewed backbench rumblings.
Abbott cannot continue to spiral down like this for much longer. Irreparable damage is being done to the fabric of the Coalition itself. There is already dissatisfaction within Cabinet and the Coalition needs to start supporting its conservative base or risk losing it.
The only way to destroy the despicable Shorten’s grand destructive plan is to go to the people with a brand new Cabinet of Scott Morrison’s choosing after having cleaned out an unrepresentative Senate.
Simply maintaining the status quo is not an option.