MOSUL SET TO BECOME ANOTHER ALEPPO
...as God only knows who’s actually taking it back
Four-time Walkley Award winning political commentator and Churchill Fellow, has returned to the fray over concern that the integrity of news dissemination is continually being threatened by a partisan media.
When 70,000 soldiers descend on 5,000 it’s a good bet that the more numerous army will prevail, but at what cost? Mosul is a city of 2 million. That figure has shrunk by half as civilians heed the many warnings of an imminent Iraqi invasion and flood through Turkey to Germany and relative safety.
Orphans look for safety among the Kurds
The invading “army” which is being promoted by Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi as an Iraqi led invasion, is actually a hotch potch of anyone who wants to don an Iraqi uniform, even Mosul's Sunnis but mostly Shia Iranians who don’t usually drop their guns and run in the way that Shia Iraqi soldiers do when they hear the first bomb explode.
But Iranians don’t want the glory they just want to kill as many Sunnis as inhumanely as possible and Secretary of State Kerry and Obama have just ensured, via a nuclear treaty, that Iran is sufficiently cashed up to carry that out.
There are many scores to be settled
Then there’s the critical Kurdish Peshmerga, a seasoned fighting force that has been effectively fighting ISIS and defending itself from the Turks, under-manned and under-equipped, despite unanswered pleas to the US for help.
Turkish “special forces”, a term also used by the US and Australia when not intending to get involved in close quarter combat, yet close enough to “advise” on tactics. The Turks are terrified a Kurdish Peshmerga enemy might establish a new or expanded Kurdish State after the blood stops flowing around Mosul and anyway for the Kurds to be fighting shoulder to shoulder with the Turks seems a crazy concept.
But this war has thrown up many strange bedfellows over tribal conflicts.
The coming battle is set to become yet another US led debacle with forces involved wanting nothing more than to kill each other as is the case in Syria if Bashar Assad falls.
But there is an interesting scenario likely to unfold if ISIS flees the coming invasion, as Muslims are apt to do when others are well armed, and it involves the massive Mosul Dam.
According to an assessment two years ago by the US State Department, more than half a million people could be killed and over one million rendered homeless should one of the Middle East’s biggest dams collapse sending a cascading Tigris river south, inundating everything in its path all the way across the lowlands to six million people in Baghdad city and another four million in the greater Baghdad area, cutting electricity to major infrastructure and possibly ten million citizens... a catastrophe not yet seen even in the Middle East and one the ISIS has been contemplating for years.
The fact is that the Mosul Dam (previously the Saddam Dam) is already seriously in need of repair, it is falling apart, and a retreating ISIS could blow it without much trouble. The reason it has not blown the dam yet is that it intended to capture Baghdad as part of its caliphate.
But ISIS is no longer an expanding force and like Iraq's Republican Army in retreat from Kuwait, it will destroy all in the Coalition's path including dams and oil wells.
US army general, Sean MacFarland, noted, "If this dam was in the United States, we would have already drained the lake behind it. We would have taken that dam out of commission", he said.
Sec of State Kerry with the Iraqi Shia Obama plant, PM, Haider al-Abadi.
Many ISIS fighters have already hightailed it back to al Raqqa headquarters after having booby trapped much of Mosul and that should indicate their intentions.
Those who remain are citizens who have witnessed the setting of IEDs and other booby traps and will inform the quasi “Iraqi army” of how and where to disarm them. So the last of the fleeing ISIS fighters will certainly kill as many citizens as possible at the first sound of gunfire.
Obama and his CIA gave ISIS plenty of notice to prepare for this coming invasion, supposedly to warn local citizens to escape to the Turkish refugee camps, but instead he may have given ISIS sufficient time in which to ensure every mother and child is raped and then murdered first.
And anyway the Turks have closed the border after being seen shooting dozens of escapees for sport.
Oh and don’t forget the Turkish contribution to this imminent holocaust. Erdogan has killed or imprisoned 30,000 possible opponents in preparation for his new Islamic Ottoman Empire.
North of Mosul is the agrarian south-east of Turkey that will rise up in league with the Kurds to put a NATO member in a civil war to top Syria’s five million dead or displaced.
Obama should now consider talking to Putin as a major player rather than imposing even more sanctions on him.
Oh yes, I remember now, it was Donald Trump who suggested that, wasn’t it?