The Pickering Post
Sunday, 17th December 2017

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CAN ABBOTT WIN THE NEXT ELECTION?

Larry Pickering

Four-time Walkley Award winning political commentator and Churchill Fellow, has returned to the fray over concern that the integrity of news dissemination is continually being threatened by a partisan media.

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If the question was, “can Bill shorten win the next election?”, the answer is a definitive “no!” But that does not mean Abbott is a definitive “yes”, far from it. Neither Abbott nor Gillard won the 2010 election. That election came down to who could enlist the support of superfluous dross like Oakeshott, Windsor and the despicable Slipper.

Whatever next year’s result, it is certain the L-NP will lose seats, lots of them, but maybe not enough to lose Government. Abbott’s reign so far has been precariously ordinary... he has made the common conservative mistake of marginalising a loyal constituency in the belief that stray votes can be vacuumed up farther Left.

Labor can always rely on the Two Party Preferred vote (it’s consistently ahead) because Shorten’s alleged criminal past under an expanding criminal union influence has little effect. Traditional Labor voters don't care how Shorten or unions behave.

Shorten himself is losing disenchanted fringe voters but they are simply drifting further Left to the Greens and bouncing back again as preference votes. And this is where the L-NP has a serious problem... there is nowhere for their disenchanted voters to retreat to, there is nothing farther Right.

And that’s why Shorten is able to lead a Party that is well ahead in the Two Party Preferred vote (the only vote that really matters) while he languishes below Abbott with an appalling personal approval rating.

The only option open to frustrated conservative voters is to vote informal... anywhere Right of the Libs is a deserted vacuum. The L-NP cannot lean to the Right simply because there is nothing there to swap preferences with... so it drifts Left!

Yep, so Abbott is fully prepared to crap on his once-loyal constituency and go vote-hunting on the Left. But that’s exactly what he should NOT do because he will lose more votes than he will pick up, as should be evident to him and his advisers by now, but apparently it is not!

True conservative votes don’t exist Left of centre, those votes are in an imaginary political oasis, a mirage where only Hewson, Turnbull and the ghost of Fraser reside. All other international constituencies have a Right option, but not Australia... waiting, waiting.

Right votes will often drift Left, but Left votes will never drift Right. Until Abbott understands this, Labor will inexplicably outpoll him.

Abbott continues to savage the very constituency he promised so much to. Where is the repeal of 18c? The defunding of a ridiculously biased and bloated ABC? The debunking of a global warming hoax? Why the appeasement of extreme Islam? Why the silence over the proliferation of mosques and a halal extortion racket? Why the equivocation and lack of leadership on gay marriage and where is the hard decision on Bronwyn Bishop that must be made? 

Abbott even supports the on-field racist antics of Adam Goodes (after he saw which way the wind blew) but the wind is slowly changing as more and more people see it for what it is... a vile promotion of racism in our sport.

Only the soppy Left would support the disgusting politicisation of a national sport... it’s something no other nation on earth would allow to degrade their sport.  

Donald Trump will never see the inside of the White House but his popularity (twice that of his nearest Republican rival) is due to a fearless and unwavering adherence to what he believes in.

The electorate will accept a commitment as long as it is well reasoned, even if it disagrees with it, but it will never accept the lack of commitment or oscillating, pussy footing equivocation.

John Howard took a very unpopular tax to an election and won... the electorate accepted his well reasoned commitment and trusted him.

Abbott will need to stop haemorrhaging his core constituency before he can enlist others, instead he is fleeing his conservative values in the pursuit of votes on the Left that will never be his.

Anyone reading this is electorally impotent, your vote has already been factored in, as are the votes of getUp and the Greens who hack this site and have my Facebook page banned.

The voters who will decide the next election are the swinging ten per cent who couldn’t give a stuff about politics! They will follow the pub test and tabloid headlines promoting whoever is the least odious.

So, can Abbott win the next election? Well, if the depleted Suns can wrest a hung result from the mighty Eagles without Ablett, then anything is possible. 



Comments

Those time stamps go back a long way dodo. Wonder what else is recorded ?

http://bettertax.gov.au/publications/discussion-paper/submissions/1/?show=50 albert anderson

.... (dreadful) dross like Oakeshott, Windsor and the despicable Slipper .... That's a bit mean. Oakeshott and Windsor are also dreadful dross -- and no less despicably so and only different in the details - than is Slippery Pete. -- Dick!

Simple...vote ALA!

looks like TA is lining this prick up for a nice right hook. Would love to see that!

The ninth paragraph above deserves to be cut out and sent to Mr Abbott by anyone who believes in freedom. Maybe then he might sit up and take a stand. That said I am grateful to him for stopping the boats and telling the Climate changers to get fucked. There is ps till so much to do.

No, Willone she just looks like she is. She looks good in a polka dot dress though.

Ambassador to Italy like Amanda Vandstone. If Tony said he did not do a deal with her for her resignation he did a deal. Time will tell.

blah blah wahhh wahhhh, FFS stop the farken whining there, worse then a diff with no oil

she will retire into the sunset with her squillions in super and still be a PITA

Keroist on across,that POS asswipe Harduphispuffing arse is still rabbiting on and on, what a prize cockhead he/it is turning out to be

They should call the Hon Mr Burke the honey bear, cause all the expenses stick to him....

The danger facing the Liberal-National party coalition is its potential disintegration following a decisive defeat at the next federal election. If Tony Abbott continues his drift to the left, especially his ill-considered support for the recognition referendum, there can be little doubt that a solid defeat would split the Liberal Party. Right wing members would most likely join with similarly right wing Nationals to form a new, and, for a change, intelligently led conservative party. Had Turnbull defeated Abbott at last year's leadership spill and then assumed the Liberal leadership we almost certainly would have seen that happen. Conservatives should never play at being progressives.

I think she could take over from Gareth Evans at the UN .He must be overdue for recall

OT

Windfall Tax on Retirement Income Adding a tax to your retirement is simply another way of saying to the American people, you’re so darn stupid that we’re going to keep doing this until we drain every cent from you. Nancy Pelosi wants a Windfall Tax on Retirement Income. In other words tax what you have made by investing toward your retirement. This woman is a nut case! You aren’t going to believe this.

Nancy Pelosi wants to put a Windfall Tax on all stock market profits (including Retirement fund, 401K and Mutual Funds!

Alas, it is true - all to help the 12 Million Illegal Immigrants and other unemployed Minorities!

This woman is frightening. She quotes...’ We need to work toward the goal of equalizing income, (didn’t Marx say something like this?), and in our country and at the same time limiting the amount the rich can invest. (I am not rich, are you?)

When asked how these new tax dollars would be spent, she replied:

“We need to raise the standard of living of our poor, unemployed and minorities. For example, we have an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in our country who need our help along with millions of unemployed minorities. Stock market windfall profits taxes could go a long way to guarantee these people the standard of living they would like to have as ‘Americans’.”

(Read that quote again and again and let it sink in.) ‘Lower your retirement; give it to others who have not worked as you have for it.’ Send it on to your friends. I just did! This lady is out of her mind!

PASS IT ON - “We make a living by what we get but we make a life by what we give” - Winston Churchill

the daily double....

Dear Hon Tony Burke MP

This email expressly calls upon you to resign your front bench position and be relegated to the back bench as a result of using ours that is the tax payers money to fund a holiday for your family.
The report in the Australian serves to identify you as a hypocrite, two faced cheat. Resign immediately or be punished at the ballot box.
"Mr Burke charged the taxpayer for his family to travel business class to Alice Springs three years ago, The Australian reported on Tuesday.

Questions have also been raised over a week-long overseas trip to Europe by Mr Burke, during his time as environment minister, where his expenses averaged $10,000 a day, it said.
Sent by me by email to the Hon Member

"Australian politicians are among the best paid in the world. PM Tony Abbott takes home more than $500,000 a year and while you may think he’s worth every penny, the leader of the free world, aka the US President, makes about AU$455,000, and the British PM a modest AU$260,000." These rates were struck under Gillard. No wonder they think they can walk on water.Judging from what we see at QT these excuses are paid far in excess of what they are worth and gives the lie to that old chestnut "if you pay peanuts you'll get monkeys" Give me the monkeys any time

Be good to see him gunning for something. He seems to spend most of his time praying for guidance.

Yep, I had more black mates in Africa than you'll ever have. There's even a few in Australia I'd be proud to have as a mate, but they are very rare.