CAN ABBOTT WIN THE NEXT ELECTION?
Four-time Walkley Award winning political commentator and Churchill Fellow, has returned to the fray over concern that the integrity of news dissemination is continually being threatened by a partisan media.
If the question was, “can Bill shorten win the next election?”, the answer is a definitive “no!” But that does not mean Abbott is a definitive “yes”, far from it. Neither Abbott nor Gillard won the 2010 election. That election came down to who could enlist the support of superfluous dross like Oakeshott, Windsor and the despicable Slipper.
Whatever next year’s result, it is certain the L-NP will lose seats, lots of them, but maybe not enough to lose Government. Abbott’s reign so far has been precariously ordinary... he has made the common conservative mistake of marginalising a loyal constituency in the belief that stray votes can be vacuumed up farther Left.
Labor can always rely on the Two Party Preferred vote (it’s consistently ahead) because Shorten’s alleged criminal past under an expanding criminal union influence has little effect. Traditional Labor voters don't care how Shorten or unions behave.
Shorten himself is losing disenchanted fringe voters but they are simply drifting further Left to the Greens and bouncing back again as preference votes. And this is where the L-NP has a serious problem... there is nowhere for their disenchanted voters to retreat to, there is nothing farther Right.
And that’s why Shorten is able to lead a Party that is well ahead in the Two Party Preferred vote (the only vote that really matters) while he languishes below Abbott with an appalling personal approval rating.
The only option open to frustrated conservative voters is to vote informal... anywhere Right of the Libs is a deserted vacuum. The L-NP cannot lean to the Right simply because there is nothing there to swap preferences with... so it drifts Left!
Yep, so Abbott is fully prepared to crap on his once-loyal constituency and go vote-hunting on the Left. But that’s exactly what he should NOT do because he will lose more votes than he will pick up, as should be evident to him and his advisers by now, but apparently it is not!
True conservative votes don’t exist Left of centre, those votes are in an imaginary political oasis, a mirage where only Hewson, Turnbull and the ghost of Fraser reside. All other international constituencies have a Right option, but not Australia... waiting, waiting.
Right votes will often drift Left, but Left votes will never drift Right. Until Abbott understands this, Labor will inexplicably outpoll him.
Abbott continues to savage the very constituency he promised so much to. Where is the repeal of 18c? The defunding of a ridiculously biased and bloated ABC? The debunking of a global warming hoax? Why the appeasement of extreme Islam? Why the silence over the proliferation of mosques and a halal extortion racket? Why the equivocation and lack of leadership on gay marriage and where is the hard decision on Bronwyn Bishop that must be made?
Abbott even supports the on-field racist antics of Adam Goodes (after he saw which way the wind blew) but the wind is slowly changing as more and more people see it for what it is... a vile promotion of racism in our sport.
Only the soppy Left would support the disgusting politicisation of a national sport... it’s something no other nation on earth would allow to degrade their sport.
Donald Trump will never see the inside of the White House but his popularity (twice that of his nearest Republican rival) is due to a fearless and unwavering adherence to what he believes in.
The electorate will accept a commitment as long as it is well reasoned, even if it disagrees with it, but it will never accept the lack of commitment or oscillating, pussy footing equivocation.
John Howard took a very unpopular tax to an election and won... the electorate accepted his well reasoned commitment and trusted him.
Abbott will need to stop haemorrhaging his core constituency before he can enlist others, instead he is fleeing his conservative values in the pursuit of votes on the Left that will never be his.
Anyone reading this is electorally impotent, your vote has already been factored in, as are the votes of getUp and the Greens who hack this site and have my Facebook page banned.
The voters who will decide the next election are the swinging ten per cent who couldn’t give a stuff about politics! They will follow the pub test and tabloid headlines promoting whoever is the least odious.
So, can Abbott win the next election? Well, if the depleted Suns can wrest a hung result from the mighty Eagles without Ablett, then anything is possible.