The Pickering Post
Wednesday, 12th December 2018

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Shivering in the Dark

Viv Forbes

Viv has a degree in Applied Science Geology and is a Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy


Yesterday, the temperature here at Rosevale in Queensland rose 25 deg in just 8 hours - from zero at 6 am to 25 deg at 2 pm. It rose at the rate of 3 deg per hour, and every degree of warmth felt better.

And then, despite there being 400 ppm of the dreaded “global warming gas” in the atmosphere, the temperature plunged 25 deg to zero by the next dawn.

Yet learned people are being paid by governments to scare us into suicidal energy policies they say will save us the horror of possible man-made global warming of maybe 1-2 deg per century.

Do these people ever go outside? Do they ever feel the powerful life-giving warmth of the sun? Do they notice that all life celebrates spring?

Have they read some climate history – of the abundance during warm eras and the bleak starvation of the ice ages? Do they know there has been no global warming for 17 years? Are they aware that the sun has gone ominously quiet and we may face global cooling, just at the time their disastrous energy policies leave us shivering in the dark?

It’s time for some common sense on energy and climate.


Terrestre...looks like an orange callistemon (bottle brush)...Australian native.

cmac1939. That was a good year. The following forties and fifties were also good as many more people had a lot more common sense, ingenuity, pragmatism and there was more community spirit where we enjoyed such ethics as: All for one and one for all! IN AUSTRALIA that is. Japan and Germany were obvious exceptions!!

Dodo n DJT. Very important points. Remember when we also went hunting wild pigs, scrub turkeys, rabbits, mushrooms, fishing before sun up or on the right tide to catch our dinner? The kids dunno what 'fun' they are missing. Self sufficiency leads to self respect, dignity, courage and a' go gettem' attitude.

Maybe it is the 'HOT AIR' from the likes of Gore, Gillard, Rudd, en and all the air headed extreme Greenies that is 'warming the planet'!?

Viv? the weight of molecule particles matters re this topic.Yet they* seem to omit it`s importance factor.They can not deny weights must be a factor re absorption, atmosphere , or attraction, gravity re co2*.

So you say that the cool weather is due to global warming?

The sun is in a dormant period, therefore the weather is cooler. Nothing at all to do with Goldman Sachs and the carbon tax. Maybe the greenies and Goldman Sachs can think up a global tax system to change the behaviour of the Sun?

Hmm , was just reading some early Oz economic statistics re wheat , cattle , primary rural industries ..and a pattern evolves (may be a coincidence) re years late 1890`s to say 1960`s , and almost like clockwork VIv a drought pattern of approx each 11- 12 yrs? That ties in with the solar cycles*, I read a bit up on too.The harvest bulk results esp Nsw Vic Qld tend to show it.I think it is solar cycle.Re sun spot `cycle` 11 yr.:))

It should not be long now before Labor/Green are going to blame the current cold weather on the repealing of the carbon tax. And who is to blame for that? Yes, you guessed right. Tony Abbott of course.

Very Canberra assessment!

DJT- "peeing in the ocean" - this was an example that Andrew Bolt stated on the Insiders years ago and at the time I thought it made sense. I think it was about the time he disappeared from the Insiders, his name never to be uttered on the ABC again - well maybe on Q&A a few times.

I think there is a correlation. The names you mention are devoid of both.

Very well said again Viv. We need more "thinker" in this world not followers.

excerpts -------

Global relative humidity
Humidity of the air has been measured by weather balloons, which give accurate results. Their data shows that relative humidity has been decreasing in the upper troposphere, particularly at 0.3 bar at the uppermost boundary. But even at 0.7 bar (?km) it has decreased by 4% over 50 years. Why this happened or what it means, is not known, but since water vapour is thought to be the most potent greenhouse gas, a decrease may have contributed to cooling of the atmosphere.

In the debate about global warming, much ado is made about the extent of sea ice, but it is not a good indicator of warming/cooling because it depends on so many factors that influence one another, particularly on ocean currents. Note that sea ice, which floats on the water, cannot cause the sea level to rise when it melts.

Important points:

•it is wrong to pay much attention to ice boundaries like sea ice extent because they are highly variable
•melting sea ice cannot contribute to rising sea levels
•sea ice depends very much on currents and their temperature and speed
•a loss in ice cover does not mean a loss in ice volume
•sea ice expands and shrinks considerably, forming cracks and stacks.
•wind force over large areas can stack sea ice high and this reduces their area covered.
•when ice forms in winter, dense salt water sinks to form deep water currents.
•the mass of sea ice is more important than its extent. Yet scaremongers report on extent only.

Is polar temperature important?
Much discussion and research is about whether the poles are warming or not, but is this relevant? Both poles are mainly covered in snow and ice, reflecting most of the solar radiation they receive. Half the year, they receive no sunlight at all. Their temperatures are unexpectedly much lower than elsewhere, with a steep gradient in between and a constant plateau over both poles (see graph above). With solar warmth negligible, their temperatures are determined by the air passing over, and this is subject to large variations.
In the chapter about water and ice we saw that ice has a rather low heat capacity and it is a good insulator, which means that if one warms the surface, the heat very reluctantly goes any deeper. So the temperature of the poles depends only on a very thin layer of material and consequently has a very low heat capacity, unlike that of the sea which has a very large heat capacity.
Furthermore, the air at polar temperatures contains very little moisture, and thus very little capacity to transfer heat by means of evaporation and condensation. It is essentially dry air with very little heat content, unlike the air passing over a body of water.
As a consequence, the poles should be excluded from world average temperature calculations. Unfortunately today they receive far too much importance.

Important points:
•the poles are the ends of the world, and thus the boundaries of the 'normal' part of the world. It is unscientific to measure at habitat boundaries because these are always changing.
•the poles consist of snow and ice with very low heat capacity while they are also good heat insulators.
•snow and ice reflect solar radiation and infrared heat, and the temperature of the poles is mainly determined by winds.
•winds warm them while radiation to space cools them. Their temperatures are in balance with these two and have little relevance to other world temperatures.
•because winds have high variability, polar temperatures do so too.
•polar winds are dry and have low heat capacity.
•the poles should be excluded from average world temperature calculations.

Does global cooling cause heat-waves?
Could it be that global cooling causes heat-waves? Surely not! Yet it does! So let's investigate this further, but first a number of principles that we've explained before:

• The usual temperature, climate and weather for any place on Earth, in any month of the year, is mainly dominated by the amount of sunshine and the amount of moisture. Latitude and season determine the amount of sunshine and thus warmth, whereas moisture has a moderating effect. Heat-waves are unusual spells of unusually warm days.
• All moisture comes from the sea. It is transported through the air onto the land and some returns through rivers to the sea. Thus places near the sea receive more moisture than places far inland, reason why all continents have deserts in their centres.
• Global temperature is dominated by the oceans because they have a much larger heat capacity than the land. Thus global temperature is best measured at sea.

When the planet cools, seas are colder than usual. Thus there is less evaporation and less moisture for the land. But it becomes worse, because winds tend to go from warmer to colder places. So on average, there is less sea wind and more land wind than usual. Thus more moisture than usual from the land, ends up in the sea. Conversely less moisture from the sea ends up on land.. The result is that the land becomes drier, sooner than usual, which gives rise to heat-waves. Nights, however, remain colder than usual. Thus the weather and climate become more desert-like.

Important points:
•climate often works contrary to intuition.
•measuring land temperatures is not a good way of measuring global temperature.
•a cool(ing) sea makes heat-waves, droughts and bushfires more likely.
•wherever cold seas flow past continents, they cause desert climates (California, Chile, Galapagos, etc.)
•global cooling has an immediate effect on the land, and affects oceans much later due to their heat capacity.
•global cooling makes heat-waves and droughts more likely, as well as bush fires.
•global cooling diminishes agricultural production.

Deluges of snow and rain. Why?
The world has been hard-hit by abnormal weather in late 2010 and early 2011. Many articles have been written and opinions voiced. Some even blame global warming, but what really happened?
It is indeed an unusual co-incidence of natural climate processes, which boil down to the following scenario:
•the world has been cooling slightly due to a change in solar activity, as borne out by the late and few sunspots for the coming Cycle 24. This alone accounts for:
?in the summer of 2010: droughts at mid-latitudes as explained above, accompanied by heat waves and bush fires
?in the summer of 2010: droughts at the centres of continents with abnormally low temperatures in the northern winter
?in the winter of 2010: (some) snow falling early, colder winter
?in the winter of 2010: (some) snow falling at lower latitudes, colder winter
•during the same time over the past three years, the oceans have experienced an unusually strong El Niño, during which ocean currents stagnate, which accounts for:
?a massive pool of warm water accumulating in the tropics
?the warmer water should have triggered an over-active hurricane season but hurricanes cannot develop strength (spin) if they cannot move to higher latitudes where the coriolis force is stronger. When they did, they moved over colder water, which extinguished them. Because of land winds, none could make a land-fall.
?seas in higher latitudes becoming colder than usual, resulting in
?summer: the drying of continents, heat waves, droughts, bush fires, etc.
?winter: early snow over larger areas
•then the El Niño ended, followed by La Niña when oceans begin to circulate again. The massive pool of warm tropical water began its journey poleward to higher latitudes, exactly when winter began in the north and summer in the south, causing:
?in the north: massive amounts of snow to fall on the still cold land. The snow, reflecting sunlight, further cooled the land, resulting in more sea wind with more snow over ever larger areas. Note, this is how an ice age begins!
?in the south: massive torrential rains on continental margins, accompanied by flooding.

An extraordinary conspiracy of natural factors indeed! Its aftermath will be felt as a thorough disruption in agricultural productivity, most likely resulting in serious famines world-wide, accompanied by social unrest.

Important points:
•The imminent food famine is global.
•A crisis can explode within months rather than decades (unlike 'global warming').
•Global cooling and droughts will intensify as the sun enters a dormant period.
•There are many complicating factors (population growth, growth in demand, higher energy prices, soil degradation, water crisis, urbanisation, politics, economics, corrupted markets, fuel from food).

You evil greenie global warming freaks are doing my head in! It's bloody snowing here! If we get any more of this rotten warming - we will freeze to death!

I'm not a fixed voter, I'm a disillusioned voter, I don't understand how you can equate a policy of wimpish half hearted multi billion dollar carbon abatement for intelligent ADULT Government. It is no wonder minor parties will continue to moderate and frustrate the dinosaurs of the past.

tony's too smart for your mob Billie "Boy"

I agree 100% with Viv ..... Mother Nature controls the climate not the greens or any of the pollies despite what they think

Don't worry chaps, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology will warm things up by fudging the data... cooling the past temperature data and thus creating a global warming trend. They call this process 'homogenising' in order to make it look authentic, justified and legal. But it's blatant fraud to create a warming trend. Even NASA's GISS has been caught out manipulating the temperature data in this way... cooling the past, eliminating previous warm periods and producing a new temperature trend that has no bearing to reality. But because its done by government agencies, it's supposed to be acceptable. In New Zealand, the scientist who adjusted past temperature data to create a warming trend was sacked. He was associated with the corrupt scientists exposed by the climategate emails.

You won't be getting common sense when scaring people and governments into throwing piles of money at how researchers to continue to peddle their lie is an industry of its own.