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Thursday, 18th January 2018

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Viv Forbes

Viv has a degree in Applied Science Geology and is a Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy

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Weather Ripples and Climate Tides


Every time a north wind blows hot air over Adelaide, some Chicken Little cries “Global Warming”. And when an El Nino predictably causes a hot year like 1998 or 2015/16, some sensation-seeking celebrity will trumpet “hottest year eevah”.

They are watching short-term weather ripples and waves and ignoring the underlying climate tide. Daily, monthly and yearly temperature records will always be equalled or broken by extreme weather – that is what weather does.

In the medium term, Earth temperature trends are influenced by variations in solar activities as evidenced by sun-spot cycles. These variations affect solar intensity, cosmic rays, clouds and Earth temperature, causing medium-term climatic events like the Little Ice Age and the Modern Warming. There are persuasive signs that recent solar activity has peaked. So we can expect cooler weather soon.

But to see what the climate is doing we must look long-term and study the glacial cycles. The Milankovitch cycles of Earth in the solar system control these.


See: http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/milankovitch.htm


Is it warming or cooling now? 

See this very informative video by Professor Bob Carter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpfMM3bVbhQ;t=159

There are many signs that Earth’s climate is gradually cooling (as Prof Carter shows in the video above).

For example, snow and ice is accumulating.

In the Antarctic, Mawson’s Hut and the Colbeck Hut are being progressively buried in ice. In Greenland, “The Lost Squadron”, which was forced to land on the Greenland Ice sheet in 1942, was rediscovered 50 years later buried under 268 feet of ice. Many glaciers are just a few thousand years old, and Himalayan glaciers are growing.


To read more about things getting buried in the snow and ice, see Mawson’s Hut:

http://www.antarctica.gov.au/living-and-working/stations/mawson/this-week-at-mawson/2012/this-week-at-mawson-21-september-2012/2


http://www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2006/mawsons-huts-lives-up-to-home-of-the-blizzard-name

Glacier Girl buried in Greenland:

http://p38assn.org/glaciergirl/recovery.htm

Himalaya Glaciers Growing:

http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2012/04/himalaya-glaciers-are-growing/

We live in the Holocene warm interval within the Pleistocene Ice Age – a time of recurring cycles of ice separated by brief warm interludes. Earth’s climate is driven by solar system cycles, and climate changes appear first in the Northern Hemisphere which has more land in the sensitive sub-polar regions. The GRIP ice core from Greenland shows the long-term average temperature there peaked 7,000 years ago and has trended down for at least 3,000 years.

Greenland now cooler than 8000 year ago:

We will still have hot days and heat waves but the climate mid-summer has passed and the temperature tide is going out. Spreading alarm about short-term temperature fluctuations of a fraction of a degree is a distraction.

No warming for 58 years:
http://realclimatescience.com/2016/03/noaa-radiosonde-data-shows-no-warming-for-58-years/


Moreover, promoting damaging energy and land management policies designed to prevent warming just as the next climate winter approaches will be seen by future generations as bizarre.



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Comments

Viv I think I love you!

These arguments are beyond bad. . Certain professorial denialists who seek refuge in the geological record would do well to update their knowledge by reading a most relevant article “Chills and Fevers”, (AFR Review 1 July) describing what is known as the PETM event when the world temperature increased by 5 degrees. The conclusion is that this heating event took 20,000 years of greenhouse gas emissions to build, and around 200,000 years to undo.
The key point is that the current CO2 emissions are estimated to be at a rate 10 times of that prevailing at that time and continue to increase.

In this, an analysis of rock cores from a mine in Spitsbergen has profiled the last time the world went through a temperature rise of 5 degrees. Known as the PTEM event, it now seems to have been caused by emissions of greenhouse gases over a period of 20,000 years, but at a much lower rate of emission than what is currently being added by human activities.

FYI, PETM stands for Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum, and should be known to anyone professing to a knowledge of geology .This did after all occur around 56 million years ago, yet on a beloved geologic time scale happened in the blink of an eye.

Profound ignorance may be excused for a layman, but not for a qualified geologist.

Born December 1938. 107 degrees. Married January 1960. 104 degrees. 1938. 438 people died due to heat. I am living the recycle of weather but a lot of younger people refuse to acknowledge that we ever had a heatwave before. No aircon no fans We have all got soft so hot days become heatwaves

I watched a video on ancient Egyptians - shows that they did not build the pyramids - the tools used to cut the stone comprised of 20 foot disks of a substance stronger than the stone itself. Also hieroglyphs were graffiti on top of statues polished. So they (Egyptians) moved into the area after a catastrophe. Claimed it as their own. It is what we are taught - political requirements in that 'they' tell us what to think without question. It is always the victors and/or the thieves with politicians that rewrite history. We just have to question - climate change is becoming a religion as people are gullible enough to believe the shit - and be taxed to stop it.

Easter (feast of Ester) is determined by the first Sunday after the first Full Moon after the Autumnal Equinox (being March 20th).

The only response to Climate Change is Tax. More tax, new tax, as long as we are taxed, the climate change will be fixed.

Where do you cherry pick your info from "VF" as with everything there are contrary views. Do the readers of this blog dismiss this article as rubbish ? http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/category/breaking-news/

Viv has spent a lot of this article saying snow accumulates as if that has anything to do with his argument.
The average summer temp for the South Pole is minus 25.9 degrees C.
To greatly exaggerate the case for long term temp rises as an immediate threat as the author always does to suit his denier case is disingenuous.
The global average temp could rise by 10 degrees and snow would still accumulate at the South Pole if its temperature was just minus 15.9
The effects on crops of a constant 10 degree increase would be an unknown outcome somewhere between extremely costly to catastrophic. Still Viv has an audience and it is better they stay indoors.

I've been on the land forty years and have my own memory of hot seasons and cold ones, droughts and times you'd lose your gumboots all winter. I just don't take any notice when people say this is the hottest/ driest/ or whatever. All I know is that there are always more bad years than good ones and it's about time we had a good one again. I want a wet autumn, warm winter and spring floods. Summer can be anything it wants, I've only ever seen one green one.

Thank you for your brilliant article Viv Forbes. This article of yours sums up the lying Left's version of fear mongering in a nutshell.

Coal brings $1B to Illawarra: Galilee

Tuesday, 15 March 2016
COAL mining in the Illawarra contributed $1 billion directly to the local economy, New South Wales Minerals Council CEO Stephen Galilee told the Australian Coal Preparation Society Conference yesterday. By Lou Caruana in Wollongong.




NSW Minerals Council CEO Stephen Galilee.


In the Illawarra, 10% of all economic activity is mining related he said.


“The Illawarra is one of our key coal mining regions,” he said.

“Despite the downturn the mining industry is still investing $11 billion directly in NSW.
“We’re putting money into the pockets of our workforce, and putting money into local businesses.

“Even during these tough times, we are making an economic contribution to the local industry.

“Despite the downturn, coal contributes 23% of all of the export out of the state of NSW.”
Galilee refuted claims that coal mining is a dying industry without a future.

“We’re in tough times, we’re in a cyclical downturn,” he said.

“This is the fifth year of my role as CEO of the NSW Minerals Council and the downturn started about the same time. I hope to see it turn around.

“Our mining services are world leading.

“What you do is bridge old and new industries, the old and new economies. I want you to be proud of your industry.”

The MalABC is going from insane to ludicrously insane (apologies to Tesla) programming. Here's their Q&A last night: "Dr Alan Finkel said during an appearance on the ABC's Q&A program, which focused on science and also discussed AI and gender equality." Pushing the queer barrow with all their might.

Sadly, the Global Warming scam is just that a socialist scam.

BDS...agreed. I have noticed that some places in the world might have lower than average temps, while at the same time other places have higher temps. I call it climate shift...again as said by Viv...the sun, Earth's axis moving etc.

I wish Mr Finkel [stein] would try to explain the mechanism by which carbon dioxide as he asserts heats the Earth.

You got thet right Frank.

Easter is fixed according to the moon cycles so its no surprise that Easter coincides with changes in the weather.

To quote Miranda Divine: "The earth will warm, the earth will cool, and there's nothing that anyone can do to change it" I think that says it all. I'm thinking of getting a T shirt printed.

The reference to Chicken Little is spot on, Viv.

In today’s Pommy Guardian: ”February breaks global temperature records by shocking amount. Warnings of climate emergency after surface temperatures 1.35 degrees C warmer than average temperature for the month”
Yeah - better slap another tax on businesses and appoint another dozen climate change researchers. No - I think I've got it - wait another week and it may well be colder.