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Tuesday, 12th December 2017

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Viv Forbes

Viv has a degree in Applied Science Geology and is a Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy

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Global climate is on a Natural See-saw, not a Man-made Tipping Point


Most climate scientists accept that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has some warming effect on Earth’s climate, but un-disputed science shows that its direct effect is tiny and declines dramatically as carbon dioxide levels rise. 

The climate models produce scary warming forecasts by assuming “positive feedbacks”. This is the basis of their claims that man’s production of this harmless gas-of-life is pushing Earth towards an irreversible temperature tipping point.

Their main feedback assumption, expressed simply, goes like this: more carbon dioxide produces surface warming, which causes more evaporation from the oceans, which increases water vapour in the atmosphere, which increases greenhouse warming, which causes more evaporation, and so on, and on.

But observations and science tell us there are also negative feedbacks. Heat produces evaporation, which puts more moisture into the atmosphere, which must produce more clouds, which reflect solar radiation and shade and cool the surface.

Evaporation also causes cooling of moist land and ocean surfaces, and transfers latent heat into the atmosphere where it has more chance of being radiated to space.

Then there are the wild cards. Climate can be affected by Earth’s albedo which depends on the cover of ice, snow, soot, vegetation and clouds; by volcanic eruptions and bushfires producing heat, dust and pollution; by cycles in sunspots, cosmic rays and planetary gravitational effects; or by the restless oceans with shifting currents and oscillations such as El Nino. The climate models have no chance of correctly forecasting the combined effect of all such variables for decades into the future.

They did not predict the global warming “pause” and they cannot tell when/if it will end.

However, climate history tells us that Earth has a natural ability to self-correct climate extremes. Unlike the models, whose feedbacks produce tipping points, Earth has never suffered a warm era or an ice age that lasted forever. In fact, the life-supporting warm periods have been comparatively short. 

A group of researchers has recently uncovered a fatal flaw deep in the heart of every climate model. This is a feedback formula, which provides never-ending feed-back and runaway warming. The formula is borrowed from electronic circuitry and is not appropriate for complex dynamic systems such as Earth’s atmosphere. 

The effect of this formula is dramatic – it multiplies the initial minor greenhouse warming by a factor of at least 3. This takes their forecast warming from a doubling of CO2 from an un-alarming 1? to a scorcher 3+?. It is why every one of the 73+ models runs hot.

For more information on this dramatic development see:
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/simple-pr.pdf

This feedback mechanism in the climate models is the sole basis for the warming scare. That is now just baseless alarmism.

It is clear that most climate change is natural. Earth is on a natural climate see-saw and not approaching a man-made tipping point. 

The climate will do whatever is written in the stars, no matter what politicians try to do to change it.



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Comments

it is sooo obvious. And my head is NOT in the sand...

Computer models, climate scientists, meteorologists, weather forecasters now have about as much credence as a very disreputable used car dealer.

How obvious does it have to be? http://climateblogcritique.homestead.com/

Tesla is working on a battery that could power your home and even help large-scale utilities to store energy more efficiently, according to its leader, Elon Musk.

At a conference on Wednesday Elon Musk said the designs for a battery for the home or the professional world, were already completed and they will probably be unveiled to the public "in a month or two. "Production could also be implemented in the next 6 months.


http://www.infohightech.com/tesla-prepare-une-nouvelle-batterie-capable-dalimenter-votre-maison-et-peut-etre-le-reseau-electrique-egalement/

Hottest Year Ever

The last time we had this discussion was 2013, remember? Before that it was 2010. Before that it was 2005, and everything started with the Super El Nino in 1998. Statistically, saying that 2014 was the hottest year ever is a very valid thing, and if you understand statistics, I am envious of you.

But the global average temperature for these years, and every year since 1998 except 1999 and 2000, have all been virtually tied, if one is a casual civilian statistician watching or reading reporting on television or other media. But a few things have been overlooked in this and the periodic media outbursts that have preceded this event.

Across the media landscape, it is being said once again that because the probability of this year being the hottest year ever was only 48 or 38 percent (or less), or because the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Service (UKMet) said that 2014 was not the hottest year, this all somehow casts the validity of climate science into question. Can the science be trusted? Is it all because of natural cycles? Are the scientists corrupt? Do statistical probabilities associated with this supposed hottest year ever temperature record mean that this data is wrong?

To understand probabilities from a non-statistician’s point of view, think of a 100-year storm. Every year there is a 1 percent chance or a 1 percent probability that a 100-year storm will happen where you are. Relating the temperature record to this concept then would mean that this year’s temperature record would definitively be the hottest ever for 38 or 48 years out of 100. But is this exact probability even important?

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/29014-hottest-year-ever

Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/hah-the-hottest-year-ever/#p2HF67I5j1zfEsVj.99

http://www.principia-scientific.org/the-atmosphere-does-not-pile-heat.html?utm_campaign=feb-5-2015&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

THE Greens party’s climate change-fearing new policy to end all coal mining in New South Wales in five years was further proof they lived in a “parallel universe”, according to NSW Minerals Council CEO Stephen Galilee.





“Coal is our state's most valuable export commodity and directly employs 2790 people in the Illawarra,” he said.


“Coal mining also supports thousands of mining supplier businesses across NSW, including over 600 Illawarra businesses that in turn provide more local jobs.”

He also said that 80% of the state’s electricity came from coal-fired power.

“Shutting down the coal industry will drive up electricity prices and lead to massive energy shortages across NSW, further harming homes and businesses,” he said.

“The Coalition and Labor must reject this ridiculous proposal by the Greens.”

The Greens believe that coal mining regions can benefit from new employment opportunities in food, renewable energy, transport and high-tech clean manufacturing.

"The Greens will continue to push for substantial increases in public funding for TAFE to provide retraining and transition support spending for affected communities and households,” Greens NSW MP and lead Upper House candidate John Kaye said.

"This state has to face the reality that the coal industry will sooner rather than later face global sanctions.

"The impacts on the NSW economy and jobs will be more manageable if the state sets its own timetable and plans a transition to a clean energy future.”

While the party wants to end coal mining, Greens MP Jeremy Buckingham has also recently discussed plans to tax mining companies an additional $250 million a year to invest this sum into renewable energy and recycling.

The "Renew Regional NSW Fund" aims to invest $1 billion into renewable energy, water saving, waste management and agricultural research over four years.

While the Queensland election result shocked many, various polls indicate the Baird government will be comfortably re-elected on March 28.

Thanks for another great article Viv. Here is on from Proff.Ian Plimer backing up "The climate will do whatever is written in the stars, no matter what politicians try to do to change it". Brain-dead Greens, ABC and ALP and Carbon Dioxide–a good read http://cairnsnews.org/2015/02/09/brain-dead-greens-abc-and-alp-and-carbon-dioxide-a-good-read/

Climategate, the sequel: How we are STILL being tricked ... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11367272/Climategate-the-sequel-How-we-are-STILL-being-tricked-with-flawed-data-on-global-warming.html

Climate Change, the Pope, and World Government
http://www.trevorloudon.com/2015/02/climate-change-the-pope-and-world-government/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed: NewZeal (New Zeal Blog)

Agenda 21 is alive and well. Global Governance is the aim and Climate change is the key. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html

https://news.vice.com/article/sea-floor-volcanoes-play-a-bigger-role-in-earths-climate-than-previously-thought

Weatherill announces SA to hold RC to investigate establishment of nuclear power. Seeing the light or new opportunities for making a dodgy quid? Trauma teams on standby to handle expected of influx of Greens presenting to Emergency with stroke and similar indications.

Here Viv, http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/07/global-warming-crowd-forgot-about-underwater-volcanoes-oops/

Luckily our Liiberal/National Government isn't fooled one bit, important new statement

In a statement, a spokesman for Environment Minister Greg Hunt said the report drew on research conducted and published by the Australian Government.

The statement said the Government believed clearly and categorically in the science, and was committed to achieving its carbon emission reduction targets.

No dick or all dick, that is the question!

Since about the time of pseudo–alpinist appearing I can't track replies to "at a glance articles". It has happened before but I didn't connect it with any specific troubles, just one of the problems that recur on PP. That might be an indication of his meddling with your identity. Using safari on ios8 if that helps site admin. Sorry real deal it must be quite vexing for you.

I think pseudo–Alpinist might be the Captain of the B–Ark.

What happened to the hole in the ozone layer that we were terrorised into believing?

Gore is a Democrat......(Socialist) ....Democrats....Rich people telling poor people that they are poor because of other rich people.......