The Pickering Post
Tuesday, 11th December 2018

If you would like to be involved or support the upkeep and further development of this site, it would be very welcome no matter how small.

Viv Forbes

Viv has a degree in Applied Science Geology and is a Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy


Farmer Fred on Judas Goats

Every few weeks we take a ute-load of sheep to the abattoir. And every time we have trouble unloading them.

Damaras are smart sheep. They look down the ramp, sniff the air, listen to the cacophony of complaining animals and decide: “There is no way we are going in there.” So they form a “circle of safety”. They press into a tight circle with their heads together, presenting a barrier of bums as impregnable as a wall of Roman shields.

Pull one sheep out, shove it down the ramp and try to grab another – the first one is already back in the circle.

So I asked my sheep-canny neighbour, Fred McNally, how to unload smart sheep.

Easy, he said: “Just train a Judas goat to walk down the ramp, along the race, and into the holding yard. The sheep will follow him. Bring the goat back and take him home for the next load of sheep.”

“Never heard of Judas goats.”

“Course you have” said Fred. “Judas goats are leading our great primary industries to destruction.

“Look at Ag Force - supposed to represent Aussie farmers and graziers. Their pastures and animals are all part of the carbon cycle of life, but they cannot see that all grazing animals are carbon neutral. And they are nice guys to those making war on carbon and do not fight green bans which protect woody weeds that are invading natural grasslands and open forests. They hope that their craven co-operation will yield them special treatment - a comfy seat on some government board or a nice little soil-carbon subsidy somewhere.

“And the NSW Farmers, who used to have carbon sense, have now discovered the climate religion and now ‘support the transition from fossil fuels like coal and gas towards more renewable energy sources .’

“Have they forgotten all the diesel, petrol, oils and fertiliser they use? Or have they invented wind-powered tractors?

“And, what about the Judas goats leading most big coal companies and their workers? They have plenty of educated people who understand carbon chemistry and physics, but most industry and union policies are green-endorsed garbage. They even rob shareholders with attempts to bury the gas of life in carbon cemeteries, a strategy which will just waste money and coal, have no effect on global temperatures, and is even too stupid for most Greens.

“I’ll bet none of these industry big-wigs have hard-work hands.

“It’s time the Judas goats leading our industries were put out to pasture.”


What are They Plotting in Poland


I’M OFFENDED JULIA, WHY DIDN’T YOU ASK ME? I do really good portraits


Yes Viv, farmers organisations have reached a point where funding is provided by Gov from levies or for doing government activities, the list is growing every day and they are assigned unsuspecting farmers as their constituency, to promote and enforce government policy. This is how administrative law works and avoids the Australian Constitution, common law etc. We see the examples now in Livestock Production Assurance LPA etc where stock cannot be sold without compliance with government desires via third party contracts never agreed to be the farmers, but agreed by farmer compliance in the first instance. It is the death of property rights, common law and our democracy. It will mean the collapse of our country as we have known it; it no longer matters whom you vote for its too late.

There is a new propaganda tool for the alarmists, Apparent Temperature. So if it's 9 degrees and a cold wind it might feel like 0, if it's 40 and a screaming northerly it might feel like 50. We've seen it in action in the Age this week where the Mid-East had a usual summer temp of 46 and an unusually high RH of 34% which everyone knows makes you feel hot and clammy. Ok, the Age is now trumpeting that this gave an apparent temperature of 64 or 74 degrees (they can't decide) and have been headlining that alarming temperature. But it wasn't. So prepare yourself for some wonderful and alarming headline temperature numbers this summer and know it's pure bull.

Two Muslims in a Toyota Tarago have driven off a cliff in Sydney, both are dead.
Officers at the scene said it was an appalling tragedy as the vehicle was capable of seating seven.

So true, but bugger the damaras. They and dorpers already are bloody goats. lol

Great post Viv!

Our current stupidity over energy policy is sending us down the Greek Road but it will be via South Africa. Find out what happens when you ignore coal fired power infrastructure within .....................

Lovely analogy Viv. Love the term Judas Goats. Plenty of Judas Goats leading sheople down the garden path. This is a term that needs to make it into our lexicon.

I will take climate change seriously when oil based fuels are quarantined for the exclusive use of growing and transporting food and running essential public transport. No more gratuitous air and road travel. No car, bike and boat racing. No interstate and world travel for bored holiday makers. Going to happen? Won't hold my breath!

In 2014, Antarctic sea ice expanded to unprecedented levels, covering more than 20 million square kilometres for the first time since records began.

Dr Jan Lieser from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre said sea ice growth was a symptom of global warming.

"The increase in Antarctic sea ice extent might seem paradoxical given changes in the global climate, but it's not when we consider some of the other factors at play," he said.

"Fresher water freezes at a higher temperature, and we know that the sea water around Antarctica is becoming less salty partly due to the rapid shrinking of the thick Antarctic ice sheet over land.

"Factors like wind, snowfall and the saltiness of the water all play an important role in this process, and we know that all of these inputs have been changing as part of larger changes in the global system."

Scientists said it was also important to make the distinction between Antarctic sea ice and land ice.

GIF: Antarctic warming
While Antarctic sea has grown in recent years, its ice shelf has shrunk an average rate of about 100 gigatonnes per year.

Professor England said it was the Ross Sea sector, a very small region in the Antarctic, where sea ice is expanding.

"If you look at all of the cryosphere there is melt occurring in all of the systems that we're really concerned about: the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic and Arctic ice sheets, the ice over the world's mountain glaciers without exception. They are melting rapidly, raising global sea levels," he said.

"So all of the world's cyrosphere is ringing out the alarm bells, the ice is melting rapidly, globally."

An analogy for this climate scepticism could be "somebody who smokes cigarettes," Professor England said.

"Their health is terrible, their lungs are about to collapse, but you find that the pinky on their finger is in great health, they've got a lovely fingernail there, it's growing beautifully.

"It's grabbing a tiny part of the person's system and saying 'That bit of their body is actually healthy and okay, they're about to collapse from all sorts respiratory problems but hey, this is not a problem'."

Hogsback on Australia’s looming coal election

Friday, 21 August 2015

THERE has always been an element of politics in the Australian coal industry but Hogsback can’t remember when there was a national election with coal as the central theme, which is what seems likely to be the case next year.

Events over the past few days have sharpened the debate about coal with the government seizing on the recent legal setback for the Carmichael project in Queensland as an opportunity to “wedge” the opposition on the question of jobs versus the environment.

It’s an interesting tactic and one which might cause a few difficult moments for the Labor Party which has traditionally been a supporter of coal miners because of their deep roots in the union movement, but has recently seen environmentalists as another source of votes.

In simple terms, and if nothing else politicians are simple people, the argument which will become a rallying cry for the government is job creation.

There will be more to it than that, and the debate will become quite complex, but at the core will be a simple “jobs” message, and it’s simple arguments like that which tend to stick in the hothouse of an election campaign.

The history of the Carmichael project is reasonably well known to people with an interest in Australian coal. It is big, remote, costly, and at current coal prices economically marginal, at best.

Adani Group, the Indian company behind Carmichael, says it is determined to proceed with the development of what could become one of the world’s biggest coal mines because India has a growing appetite for high-quality Australian coal in its power stations.

But what’s made life difficult for Adani is a combination of the low coal price and a determined environmental campaign which has stretched the law to the limit, and perhaps to breaking point with the use of legal loopholes to delay development of the mine.

By resorting to international funding from environmental lobby groups which have no connections to Australia the anti-Carmichael campaigners have been able to delay the project, and undoubtedly plan to continue doing so.

The latest loophole, over whether a government minister correctly assessed the status of a snake and a skink, was the tipping point for many Australians because not only are the animals in question highly unlikely to be driven to extinction by the Carmichael mine their environment is being protected under the terms of the mine’s approval.

It was a bureaucratic blunder in not using the correct form of words which forced Adani to re-submit its plans for Carmichael, triggering a cascade of delays for construction contractors and potentially killing the creation of up to 10,000 jobs.

The Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, has been quick to spot an opportunity to use Carmichael as a wedge to force the Leader of the Opposition, Bill Shorten, to make a decision about whether he is in favour of jobs at Carmichael, or the legal sabotage being used by environmentalists to prevent people from working.

What the government proposes to do is introduce laws which mean the only people who can start a legal action against an approved project must have a direct interest in the case, such as landholders affected by a development.

There are three problems for Abbott in that plan. The first is that the proposed change to the law is unlikely to pass in in the Senate. The second is that another law simply provides a route map for opponents to engage in more delaying tactics, and thirdly there is a fair chance that Adani might put the project in mothballs while the politics are played out.

What interests The Hog is whether a backlash against the proposal to limit international interference in the Australian project development process will worry Abbott, or whether he might event welcome it because it will help raise questions over Shortens position.

There’s no point in exploring all the possible outcomes, or the arguments that are likely to flow from the Carmichael case, because the entire situation is about to become highly political as Australia heads towards an election sometime in the middle of next year.

Abbott will be arguing all the way to polling day that his government is pro-jobs and pro-development.

Shorten will try and claim the same high ground, while also being forced to defend his likely rejection of the legal amendments to allow Carmichael to proceed without the threat of more time-wasting challenges from the environmental movement.

Whether Adani wants to have its proposed project used as a political football is irrelevant because that’s what it’s become, like it or not.


Thank you Viv, for a great bit of truthful wisdom.

Abbot Point coal port reaches another milestone

Friday, 21 August 2015
Lou Caruana
The development of Adani’s proposed $16.5 billion Carmichael mine, rail and port complex in the Galilee Basin moved a step closer yesterday with the release of a draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Abbot Point coal port project.

The proposed expansion of Abbot Point will boost its capacity to meet anticipated export demand from proposed Galilee Basin mining projects.

Queensland state development minister Anthony Lynham said the government was holding to its commitment that this infrastructure would not be funded by taxpayers, as was planned under the previous LNP government.

“Importantly, any expansion at the port will be at the cost of Galilee Basin developers, including Adani, not Queensland taxpayers,” he said.

Lynham said this is a milestone for the sustainable development of the Galilee Basin and the jobs and economic development it could deliver for Queenslanders.

“We’ve delivered on our election commitment to protect the Great Barrier Reef and the nationally-significant Caley Valley Wetlands,” he said.

“We are putting dredged material on port land next to the existing terminal, and we are minimising impacts to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area by ruling out at-sea disposal.

“The community can now have its say on the draft EIS with around 2400 pages of detailed investigatory information and almost 150 commitments to protect the environment.”


The Myth of the Climate Change '97%'

The "97 percent" figure in the Zimmerman/Doran survey represents the views of only 79 respondents who listed climate science as an area of expertise and said they published more than half of their recent peer-reviewed papers on climate change. Seventy-nine scientists—of the 3,146 who responded to the survey—does not a consensus make.

In 2010, William R. Love Anderegg, then a student at Stanford University, used Google Scholar to identify the views of the most prolific writers on climate change. His findings were published in Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. Mr. Love Anderegg found that 97% to 98% of the 200 most prolific writers on climate change believe "anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been responsible for 'most' of the 'unequivocal' warming." There was no mention of how dangerous this climate change might be; and, of course, 200 researchers out of the thousands who have contributed to the climate science debate is not evidence of consensus.

In 2013, John Cook, an Australia-based blogger, and some of his friends reviewed abstracts of peer-reviewed papers published from 1991 to 2011. Mr. Cook reported that 97% of those who stated a position explicitly or implicitly suggest that human activity is responsible for some warming. His findings were published in Environmental Research Letters.

Mr. Cook's work was quickly debunked. In Science and Education in August 2013, for example, David R. Legates (a professor of geography at the University of Delaware and former director of its Center for Climatic Research) and three coauthors reviewed the same papers as did Mr. Cook and found "only 41 papers—0.3 percent of all 11,944 abstracts or 1.0 percent of the 4,014 expressing an opinion, and not 97.1 percent—had been found to endorse" the claim that human activity is causing most of the current warming. Elsewhere, climate scientists including Craig Idso, Nicola Scafetta, Nir J. Shaviv and Nils- Axel Morner, whose research questions the alleged consensus, protested that Mr. Cook ignored or misrepresented their work.


Rigorous international surveys conducted by German scientists Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch—most recently published in Environmental Science & Policy in 2010—have found that most climate scientists disagree with the consensus on key issues such as the reliability of climate data and computer models. They do not believe that climate processes such as cloud formation and precipitation are sufficiently understood to predict future climate change.

Surveys of meteorologists repeatedly find a majority oppose the alleged consensus. Only 39.5% of 1,854 American Meteorological Society members who responded to a survey in 2012 said man-made global warming is dangerous.

Finally, the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—which claims to speak for more than 2,500 scientists—is probably the most frequently cited source for the consensus. Its latest report claims that "human interference with the climate system is occurring, and climate change poses risks for human and natural systems." Yet relatively few have either written on or reviewed research having to do with the key question: How much of the temperature increase and other climate changes observed in the 20th century was caused by man-made greenhouse-gas emissions? The IPCC lists only 41 authors and editors of the relevant chapter of the Fifth Assessment Report addressing "anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing."

Of the various petitions on global warming circulated for signatures by scientists, the one by the Petition Project, a group of physicists and physical chemists based in La Jolla, Calif., has by far the most signatures—more than 31,000 (more than 9,000 with a Ph.D.). It was most recently published in 2009, and most signers were added or reaffirmed since 2007. The petition states that "there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of . . . carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate."


We could go on, but the larger point is plain. There is no basis for the claim that 97% of scientists believe that man-made climate change is a dangerous problem.

Mr. Bast is president of the Heartland Institute. Dr. Spencer is a principal research scientist for the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on NASA's Aqua satellite.

February 6 1851 was the warmest day ever recorded in Victoria with a temperature of over 47C. You will not find mention of it in BOM records because it has been "moderated" out. A fire burned from Mt Gambier to Geelong. It was so intense it set fire to the sails of a ship in Bass Strait. We have always had extreme weather events.

Funny how people listen to a small group of "heretics" and ignore tens of thousands of mainstream scientists, plus a massive body of evidence.
The heretics have a significant axe to grind because they are getting paid by coal suppliers to say what they say.

Sadly one of the most sensible meteorologists in the Melbourne BOM has retired. A man who was honest about the uncertainties of weather prediction and willing to let us know their weather prediction models often didn't agree with each other. He actually said Melbourne had a heat island effect on temperature readings. Both in the fire service and on the land I have learned how difficult it is to predict weather even 12 hours hence. People who want to base policy on climate model projections for distant years are either fools or smart operators who treat the public as fools.

We have a “moral imperative” to burn carbon dioxide-emitting fossil fuels because the energy they provide is a “liberator” of humanity, says Dr. John Christy, a climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama, Huntsville.

"During the next year or so, there will likely be “a bump in global temperatures from the huge El Nino that’s occurring out in the Pacific. So be ready for a bunch of press about ‘warmest month, warmest year’ and so on due to this El Nino".

“It will be couched in terms of human-caused global warming, but no one can prove how much warming is due to humans and how much is due to Mother Nature. And [global temperatures] will come down off that when that El Nino is spent,” (Climatologist, Dr John Christy).