The Pickering Post
Thursday, 23rd November 2017

If you would like to be involved or support the upkeep and further development of this site, it would be very welcome no matter how small.


Viv Forbes

Viv has a degree in Applied Science Geology and is a Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy

Blog

Correlation, Causation or a Carbon Tax Con-Job?


If two things vary in parallel, that is a positive correlation. But it does not prove that one causes the other.

For example, wet roads always occur when it rains. But wet roads do not cause rain.

Three things are required to prove that rain always causes wet roads.

Firstly, no exceptions – roads must get wet every time it rains. They do.

Secondly, the cause must always come before the effect. Rain always comes before wet roads (apart from snow, floods, burst water-mains etc).

Thirdly, we need a credible explanation of the mechanism. We have it – rain is composed of falling drops of water, and the water wets the road.

The three conditions are satisfied - therefore rain does cause wet roads. The theory becomes a law.

Now, let’s look at the theory that carbon dioxide (CO2) controls global temperature.

Firstly, there is no consistent correlation – CO2 has risen consistently for the last century but global temperatures rise and fall, and the trend has been flat for over a decade. This absence of consistent correlation proves that CO2is not the prime controller of global temperature.

Secondly, ice core data show that temperature turning points occur long before reversals in atmospheric CO2content. This evidence suggests that global temperature may control the CO2 carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, rather than the reverse. And there is a proven mechanism to explain that - warming oceans expel CO2and cooling oceans absorb it.

Thirdly, although the mechanism of carbon dioxide warming exists, it is progressively less effective as CO2 levels rise.

It is clear that CO2 fails all tests as the controller of global temperatures. Other factors such as solar cycles, clouds and oceans have much bigger impact.

Thus the carbon dioxide theory of global warming is a carbon tax con-job.

 



More

Back to Bolted-Down Industries


Party Time for Climateers


“Zero Emissions” will Test the Convictions of Canberrans

Comments

Can someone explain the methodology tome.

I still have not had a sensible explanation on how a carbon tax will prevent global warming.

ASTEROID TAX Viv!
And next,
Comet Tax! <:-(

Global Warming? – Climate Change? – Bush Fires? NO - Don’t you worry ‘bout that – Worry ‘bout THIS;
Scientists from the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) have announced that NASA made a crucial miscalculation in their prediction that asteroid 2013 TV135 will miss Earth. Lead scientist Yoheshu Kaiwi explained that NASA scientists “failed to account for Earth’s gravitational wobbling”. When this wobbling is factored in, the asteroid is on a direct collision course with Earth.
Dr. Kaiwa ended his announcement on a grave note, “The size of this asteroid will cause great damage to Earth when it collides. We cannot imagine the catastrophe. It will strike with a force greater than 10,000 Godzillas.”
- See more at: http://nationalreport.net/nasa-miscalculates-asteroid-path-japanese-scientists-predict-earth-impact/

And if the Asteroid don’t get you, the Comet will;
http://nationalreport.net/comet-ison-changes-course-earth-scientist-show-isons-new-path/

WOT ? Me WORRY?

So - How far BACK do the Bush Fires put our CO2 emissions?
WOW! It's just started RAININ'!
We've had about 20mm in the last 5 minutes (:-))
Hope they get some down south soon.

Their Secondary Aim is to extract money, but their Primary Aim is World Government through the UN, which is no friend of western/capitalist democracies. We must also not forget that we are too stupid to make "enlightened " decisions, so our betters are going to make them for us.

1/27% of the trace element Carbon in the atmosphere...No global warming for 17 years...JUST A HUGE CON JOB TO EXTRACT MONEY FROM THE LITTLE PEOPLE....its called Agenda 21...simply put its about controlling the people via the environment. Pathetic...

It reminds me of a story I heard. An African tribe was 100% successful in making it rain by doing a rain dance. A neighbouring tribal chief sent a messenger to find out the secret. The secret is simple. The successful tribe kept dancing until it rained. I think the Global Warming claimants are trying the same methodology. If they keep making these claims, one day they hope they are right and can claim the kudos of 'accurate' prediction.

Thanks Viv - great explanation between correlation and causation

I was checking the weather forecast earlier in the week and i noticed it was 12 deg in Ballarat and 39 deg in the top-end NT shit that is a 27 deg difference now that is what i call global warming

Thank you for your explanation , I can understand it, I have never heard any clear exact explanation for the need for a Carbon Tax and its correlation as a fix for Global Warming by a Tax,

Viv! That is one of the best, simplest and most understandable explanations of the disjunction between CO2 and temperature that I have ever read. Thank you. I will copy this into word and send it to all my disbelieving warmest friends and non friends!

Up here in Bathurst we have the Flannery center in honor of his so-called great work of informing us mere mortals of the dangers of Global warming WTF the place should be renamed ASAP.

No Oigle you dill...
Flannery is a paleo-mammologist!
Whatever the hell THAT is.

Gosh.....Don't tell me that that nice Professor Flannery misinterpreted the Facts?
Well - after all he was a Professor of BUGS or something - NOT Climate? Right?
Ya can't get it all RIGHT. Right?

http://notrickszone.com/2013/10/12/most-severe-start-of-winter-in-200-years-european-municipalities-now-ignoring-foolish-predictions-of-warm-winters/

Warming is being ignored as record cooling approaches

I believe we'll have a better understanding of CC by mid century, the science is just far too complex and much of he ''science'' has been politicised. The subject has always interested me but I've never been conned by the alarmists

And there is a proven mechanism to explain that - warming oceans expel CO2 and cooling oceans absorb it.......There is also solid historic data that shows when there are higher planetary levels of Co2 the ensuing cooling or :Ice age" is more pronounced and for a longer period.
I just wonder how these so called "scientists" will explain matters when temperatures suddenly start to fall away suddenly.
There also must be some way of measuring our actual distance from the sun during various periods of the planets evolution.

Well put, Viv - concise and easy to understand for the layman (like me). I'd be interested in your opinion as to what is causing the current warming cycle. I personally think it's mainly due to solar conditions with some input by overpopulation of humans and the enormous impact this has on the planet, but I'm no expert.

The movie "Wag the dog" on a Global stage comes to mind.